Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
